Friday, October 28, 2016

Turkey, Mosul, And What Comes Next

WWIII is what's coming next if Obama and his Pentagon maniacs have their way  


The grand Mosul operation was launched Oct. 17 by Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, accompanied by a group of tough and decisive-looking generals. There was a flurry of activity, and now there is a lot of speculation, in addition to observations, about the current and future battle plans of the Islamic State, Syria, Russia and the United States.

In the first week of the offensive, about 30,000 Iraqi national army, Shiite militias and peshmerga elements, supported by an anti-Islamic State (IS) air coalition led by the United States, captured about 80 villages around Mosul, while about 6,000 IS militants counterattacked at different points.

The IS operation to infiltrate Kirkuk's center via Havika and link up with their sleeper cells in the city was the most important development of the Oct. 21-24 operations. 

That was followed by news reports that IS had counterattacked at Rutbah in Iraq’s Anbar province, not far from the country’s borders with Syria and Jordan. Then came news that an Oct. 24 IS attack against Sinjar, which dominates the vital road from Mosul to Syria, had been blocked by Yazidi forces supported by US Air Force fighters.

The pace of combat operations generally slowed in the next few days. The question everyone now asks is whether IS will resist in Mosul for months as it did in Fallujah and Ramadi, or will melt away without putting up sustained, heavy resistance.

First, a reality: IS seems to be acutely aware of the existential struggle it faces against peshmerga, Sunni Arab tribes of Ninevah province, Iraq’s national forces and Shiite militias. IS shows signs of launching a new wave of terror with counterattacks and vehicle-borne suicide bombings.

IS will likely try to create an ethnic-sectarian civil war in Iraq by sending suicide bombers to Shiite religious shrines and mosques and to disputed territories such as Kirkuk and those between Erbil and Baghdad.

Obama,. Clinton armed and trained CIA/ISIS

An analysis of the first week of the Mosul operation showed that to delay enemy advances to Mosul's center, IS resorted to hit-and-run bombing attacks in surrounding villages. More than 20 vehicle-borne bombing attacks have been recorded in Mosul’s periphery since the operation's launch. To incapacitate the massing of coalition forces around Mosul, IS is distracting them with operations at Kirkuk and Rutbah, which no doubt have high prestige values. In short, IS appears determined to stay and fight.

Does that mean IS will fight to the last militant in Mosul? Or will it act rationally and disengage before it becomes too expensive? I believe that the IS military leadership adheres to rational military strategies, in contrast to its fighters on the ground, who are motivated by Salafi-jihadi ideologies with an apocalyptic vision. We saw how rational IS military commanders could be when, on Oct. 16, instead of trying to defend symbolically important Dabiq against a Free Syrian Army assault backed by Turkey, they withdrew toward al-Bab. The IS military command acted rationally during their defensive period from January to June, and they are acting rationally now when they are under heavy pressure.

If that is the case, what does rational military thinking call for at Mosul? That's simple: Defend as much as you can. Undermine the enemy’s offensive intentions. Dictate the pace. Make the combat static. Spread it over a long period to break the cohesion of the enemy, which already has the appearance of a motley collection. If there's a need to withdraw, don’t hesitate to regroup, get organized and hit back.

With that line of thinking, I believe IS will resist in Mosul as much as it can and then evacuate the city in phases and shift its main force to Deir ez-Zor and Raqqa in Syria or to Iraq’s Sunni-populated Diyala rural terrain.

IS doesn’t appear ready to concede Mosul easily. According to information I received from local sources, IS reinforcements are coming from Syria, and Mosul residents are prevented from leaving so that they can be used as shields against air attacks. There are also other indications that IS intends to fight hard for Mosul, such as executing about 60 prisoners and banning cellular and internet connections to the outside world.

Of course there is also the widely reported reality of hundreds of hardened IS combat positions fortified by roadside bombs, tunnels, snipers and suicide bombers.

If IS militants cannot end the Mosul siege with their resistance, they will shave off their beards, mix with the civilians and foreign militants, and withdraw to other locations to regroup. Diyala rural terrain, with its desert features and hills, provides an ideal location to regroup. In a CTC Sentinel article, Alex Mello and Michael Knights predict that IS militants leaving Mosul are likely to use the Diyala region as an assembly point in Mosul’s periphery to reorganize.

If IS loses Mosul, then Syria, Iraq and the rest of the world must be ready to deal with the phenomenon of an IS without a state and with an ever-shrinking territory. In my Nov. 20, 2015, column titled “Is the Islamic State going global?" I emphasized that there is a split in IS between "localists and globalists" over the group's defensive posture. More recently, in a July 14 column titled “Is the Islamic state planning a cyber-caliphate?” I drew attention to increasing IS propaganda activities in neighboring countries such as Jordan and Turkey following losses of territory in Iraq and Syria. My point was that the globalists in IS are likely to shift their activities to Turkey, to train and export cells to other countries.

CNN fraud "war reporter" shills for CIA/ISIS

It is likely that if it loses Mosul, IS will alter its combat strategy and go underground, boost its propaganda operations in cyberspace and shift its training activities to Jordan and Turkey while mounting terror acts to send the message “We are still strong.”

Finally, if IS loses more strength and becomes more of an underground terror organization, it can become a major proxy in the developing US-Russia power struggle in Syria and Iraq.

The United States sees that with the involvement of Russia, the Syrian army has performed better than anticipated in its operations and is about to reach the end of the battle at Aleppo. To exhaust the Russian military and economically degrade it, the US may opt not to annihilate IS in Mosul but to let it withdraw to Syria through Mosul’s west flank, which was left open. If this scheme works, then the IS fighters who regroup at Raqqa-Deir ez-Zor may form a defensive line that will prevent Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's forces from crossing east of an Aleppo-Palmyra line.

In short, the United States, by allowing IS militants to withdraw to Syria from Mosul, may be hoping to use that organization to erode the military gains of Russia and the Assad regime.

Syria and Iraq are on the verge of becoming a hot front in the global struggle for power between the United States and Russia. One cannot help but wonder whether the United States is redesigning a new Afghanistan in Syria to militarily and economically exhaust Russia.

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MUSA UCAN: Intrigue And Turmoil In Istanbul

Turkey teeters on the brink of all out war with Iraq and Syria as the Middle East becomes further destabilised by foreign imperialists       

By Musa Uçan

It has now been three months since the Gülenist terror organization (FETO) attempted a coup in Turkey that killed hundreds of people, wounded Turkish public conscience and discredited Turkey in the eyes of both allies and enemies. 

We continue to read aggressive reports and editorial commentary from Western columnists and political analysts who assert that the coup was staged and that Erdogan knew and allowed it under his control in order to increase his popularity while strengthening his position and enhancing his presidential aspirations. 

It is clearly evident that the Turkish government remains incapable at convincing the U.S. authorities and the world that the Gülenist movement is a terrorist organisation and his followers are responsible for the coup attempt. 

It is documented that the Gülenist movement (who sponsors 120 schools in the U.S.) is now funding lobbyist former politicians and organisations. 

An invisible war has been taking place in Turkey since the July 15th incident, and it is clear that the Turkish president is not hesitating make clear his requests regarding U.S. policies about FETO and the extensions of the PKK in Syria; YPG - PYD. 

Erdogan is calling upon the the U.S. to deport Gülen (now living in Pennsylvania), however U.S. officials are demanding proof of his involvement in order to consider initiating deportation proceedings while declaring they will evaluate such proof objectively. 

This is not the first time Erdogan has openly questioned imperialist hypocrisy. U.S. support to PYD - YPG in Syria (an extension of ultra-Kurdist terror organisation PKK) against all petitions from Erdogan and the now documented links of the Gülenist terror organisation FETO, the Clinton Foundation and finally the Zarrab file and Judge Richard Berman's alleged links with FETO. Turkish authorities are already discussing the possibility of leaving NATO and the question now is are U.S. government officials  ready to lose an ally located in the "heart" of the Middle East?

A favorite word is being tossed around by columnists in the aftermath of the failed coup attempt has been "mastermind," and indeed who is this "mastermind" Erdogan is referring to?

Clinton, Gulen

President Erdogan was pointing to a "mastermind" when asked by reporters who is behind this betrayal and defined "mastermind" as the individual or individuals controlling the ringleader Gülen and the Gülenist movement FETO. 

Well known investigative reporter and author Soner Yalçın has asked "[W]hat Henri Barkley was doing at the [H]otel Splendid Palace in Istanbul [on] July 15, who else was there with him [and] what was the topic while [the] military was attempting a coup outside," ( Soner Yalçın's article at 20.07.16). 

OdaTV published an interview with one of participants of Barkley's dinner at Splendid Palace.

There were 10 individuals in attendance, and some of the participants of that mysterious dinner were Ahmed Morsy (Carnegie Endowment Institute), Iran specialist Ali Vaez, Middle East specialist from Beyazit University Bayram Sinkaya along with columnist and Dean of the Diplomatic Corps Dr. Mensur Akgün. The participants were seated around a U shaped table with Barkley placed in the middle. The topic of discussion is unknown as per Odatv's exclusive report.

The OdaTV report also highlighted quotes from Akgün's columns he wrote after the coup:

"Akgün wrote a column two days after [the] failed coup attempt (July 17th) and stated [the] possibility of a foreign link with [the] coup 'there might be [other] states behind the coup but [the] Turkish government shouldn't express it unless they have strong evidences in the hand.'" 

As one may remember the former Minister of Labor and Social Security Süleyman Soylu has said, "it's [the] USA behind this failed coup attempt."

In Akgün's column of July 20 he warned the government and supporters; "Even some of us are underestimating Turkey's relationship with [the] U.S. and EU [it] is very important" he said. He also stated that both Europe and the U.S. are not satisfied with the AKP government and even may have supported the coup attempt. Akgün then simply threatened the government: "We should keep in mind that organizing or supporting a coup in Turkey isn't [the] only thing that [the] USA is capable of."

Was Brennan and the CIA behind the failed coup?

Details are scarce to non-existent, a nebulous "mastermind" who controls Gülenist terror organization FETO remains unidentified. What is known is that an effort was made to end the secular Turkish Republic (the one and only secular, Unitarian republic of the world with a Muslim majority) that resulted in the deaths of hundreds of civilians by helicopters, armored vehicles and an army built and fed by these civilian's taxes. 

And a group of coup plotters penetrated the 5.000 year old Turkish Army, one of strongest and most active in NATO and attempted to overtake control of the state. These individuals attempted to initiate a multifaceted civil war which would definitely trigger bloody ethnic and sectarian conflicts in the Balkans, Caucasus, Cyprus, Azerbaijan - Armenia while at the same time destabilising the entire Middle East region. 

This group lodged itself in the deepest cells and veins of the army and published secrets of the State and military above the fold of a CIA funded so-called "newspaper" (Taraf), jailed loyal Kemalists, independent and patriotic generals with manufactured, bogus evidence spread by CIA-linked journalists.

It definitely seems now that the "mastermind" will lose more allies as a consequence of "Soft Power" foreign policy and promised "change" to the nation. What remains now is a bankrupted economy, more homeless people, more refugees, more bullets and more weapons, more dictators, more discussions,  more terrorists, bloody petrodollars and more and more victims.

The bloody events at the Incirlik NATO base on July 15th and the importance of Barkley & Fuller, Carnegie Endowment, RAND Corporation will be the topic of the next report. We will unveil some faces and links here to expose the dirty face and hypocrisy of imperialism.

Understanding these incidents in Turkey during the last three decades is the key to understanding what is happening now and will happen in Middle East, Europe, Balkan and Caucasus in the near and distant future. It will affect us all.

Musa Uçan
Musa Uçan is a freelance journalist reporting on international affairs and global politics and has traveled widely throughout the Middle East, Russia, Northern Africa and Asia. He has witnessed first-hand the before and after Arab Spring and Orange Revolutions. 

He resides in Turkey.



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