Sunday, July 03, 2016

Brexit: Who's Next?

Merkel, Juncker, Tusk, Cameron, Hollande now watch helplessly as their EU dictatorship crumbles around them like the Third Reich  

By Pyotr Isenderov

The results of the referendum on Great Britain’s membership in the European Union represent a "step backward" for European integration – this was what German Chancellor Angela Merkel said when she spoke by telephone with US President Barack Obama. 

But it’s worthwhile to clarify that idea: the referendum was not a thumbs down on European integration as a whole, just on the 1950-2000 model of European integration, which entailed partially depriving European countries of their sovereignty and using the machinery of the EU to appropriate all new states (that former version of the European Union expanded eastward in tandem with the expansion of NATO). The results of the British referendum are likely to lead to a radical revision of the principles governing the relationships within the EU and also to limit the entry of new states.

This period of uncertainty in the relationship between London and Brussels could last as long as two years, during which the parties will have to establish the political and organizational principles that will guide the British exit from the European Union as well as their future relationship. There is a wide selection of potential models to choose from, ranging from close coordination between the United Kingdom and the EU – à la Norway – to the construction of a "framework" relationship, such as what the EU has with the United States, Australia, and Canada.

The second aspect of the problem concerns the prospects for the future operation of the eurozone.

On one hand, Great Britain’s departure from the EU will strengthen the zone that uses a common European currency. In that scenario, the seven non-eurozone EU members will be responsible for only 15% of total EU gross domestic product, whereas currently (with the inclusion of Great Britain) they contribute over 30 %. On the other hand, the lack of balance in the existing relationship models between eurozone members vs. non-members will inevitably lead to more conflicts between them, which will increase the instability of the common European currency. 

The European Union is splitting once and for all into supporters of a "strong euro" zone (Germany, France, Italy, Belgium, Netherlands, Luxembourg, and Austria) vs. those countries that see danger in the existence of a "two-speed" financial system within an integrated political organization.

Equally important are the political consequences of the Brexit. The situation today is such that at least ten EU members – Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Greece, Cyprus, Spain, Bulgaria, Romania, Portugal, and Austria – might insist on holding a referendum similar to the one in the UK.

And every country in Central and Eastern Europe has its own reasons for wanting to revise its relationship with Brussels. In the Czech Republic those arguments have to do with a pervasive strong desire to quit the European Union, but Hungary’s biggest problem is its loss of an EU ally. 

Great Britain and Hungary are the only nations that voted against Jean-Claude Juncker’s appointment as president of the European Commission, and the British exit may well buoy Eurosceptic sentiments among the Hungarian elite. Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó has already alluded to this: "Hungary shares many points of view with the UK on the question of European integration, such as the importance of sovereignty and on the responsibility of national parliaments. It is important that this type of thinking is represented by a strong player within the EU."

The Voice of America offered a telling assessment of the new, post-Brexit geopolitical reality in its coverage of the June 24 discussion of the British referendum results at the Washington headquarters of the Atlantic Council: "The results of the vote on the referendum about Great Britain’s pullout from the EU reflect the disconnect between the attitudes of the elite vs. the general public and could trigger a chain reaction across Europe. For this reason, Brussels needs to abandon its efforts to further integrate Europe and instead contemplate how to rebuild the European project, while the United States should reconsider its relationship with the EU as well as its own avenues of engagement."

So, we have the rejection of further expansion of the EU and the reconstruction of the entire European project.

And of course, the British referendum results will automatically bolster the Eurosceptic positions in the leading EU states – Germany, France, and the Netherlands – especially given the upcoming general elections there. And their biggest argument is becoming the discontent with the massive and uncontrolled influx of migrants (in 2015, Great Britain got 330,000 migrants just from EU member states alone).

Certainly, the impact of the Brexit will vary by individual EU state, but the general pattern seems to look like this:

- Hungary and Sweden will lose a strategic EU ally;

- In Germany, the Brexit is seen as a serious blow to "European morale;"

- Slovakia, Romania, Poland, and Lithuania are concerned about the future fate of their own citizens in Great Britain (about 100,000 Slovaks alone live there);

- Ireland, Spain, Greece, and Cyprus see the economic fallout from Britain’s EU departure as the biggest threat;

- In all other EU countries (with the possible exception of Portugal and Bulgaria) the top concern is the rise of public Euroscepticism. For example, Austria’s Freedom Party, whose candidate came one step away from winning the recent presidential election, has already demanded a referendum there about leaving the EU. 

However, before some new country asks to follow the UK "out the door" from the EU, the very United Kingdom itself might cease to exist. Some influential political forces in Scotland and Northern Ireland now very seriously intend to hold their own referendums on independence, and very soon.

This news bureau contains copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. We are making such material available in our efforts to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democracy, scientific, and social justice issues, etc.  We believe this constitutes a 'fair use' of any such copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes.



The real truth on 9/11 slowly continues to bleed out

Technical experts are mounting major challenges to official U.S. government accounts of how three World Trade Center skyscrapers collapsed in near-freefall after the 9/11 attacks 15 years ago.

Many researchers are focusing especially on the little-known collapse of



The Geopolitics Of The United States, Part 1: The Inevitable Empire

The Empire and the inevitable fall of the Obama criminal regime

STRATFOR Editor’s Note: This installment on the United States, presented in two parts, is the 16th in a series of STRATFOR monographs on the geopolitics of countries influential in world affairs.

Like nearly all of the peoples of North and South America, most Americans are not originally from the territory that became the United States.



Geopolitics Of The United States Part 2: American Identity And The Threats of Tomorrow

A look back at 2011 predictions for the future in order to put events of today into perspective

 photo capitalism_zpsah78uy5p.jpg
We have already discussed in the first part of this analysis how the American geography dooms whoever controls the territory to being a global power, but there are a number of other outcomes that shape what that power will be like. The first and most critical is the impact of that geography on the American mindset.



By Robert S. Finnegan

This e-mail outlines and confirms the acts of espionage against Indonesia and Indonesians by Akiko Makino and the others involved both in Kobe University and in AI Lab at University of Airlangga, Surabaya; Bahasa Indonesia original follows English translation...



UPDATED 01/07/2015 : New Analysis Challenges Tamiflu Efficacy; Hong Kong Corona Virus Outbreak


 photo TAMIFLU_small_zpssojx6okt.jpg

Obama criminals now resulting to biowarfare in quest to destroy Chinese and ASEAN economy; "novel virus substrain" points directly to a Kawaoka / Fouchier / Ernala-Ginting Kobe lab virus weaponized and genetically altered to specifically target and infect the Asian population: Ribavirin...



 photo WHO02_zpsplmhtlpr.jpg
The 5th Estate has just purchased a library on H5N1 "Novel" virus pandemics, there are dozens of PDF and Exel documents we feel will assist you in saving lives following intentional releases of the H5N1 and now MERS viruses; we will begin by printing those that appear to be extremely relevant here: H5N1 Kobe-Kawaoka-Ernala series continues soon with more "Smoking Gun" e-mails from Teridah Ernala to The 5th Estate . . .



By Robert S. Finnegan

On October 12, 2002 the Indonesian island of Bali experienced a terrorist attack that rocked the world. It was unquestionably well-coordinated and executed, the largest in the country's history.