Wednesday, October 19, 2011

Global Insight: Indonesia Intelligence Report


Latest report on Advanced-Country; Indonesia
Part 1

Global Insight
01/03/2011

Executive Summary:  Key Issues to Watch

Steady, Though Not Spectacular, Growth: Indonesia was one of the few Asian economies to avoid recession in 2009, due to its lesser export dependence and comparatively robust domestic demand. This also means that the country will trail many of its regional peers in terms of growth performance in 2010 as it does not benefit from the same sort of pent-up demand boost available elsewhere. Nonetheless, economic performance will remain solid, with real GDP expected to grow 6.0% in 2010 and by a similar rate in 2011.

Tame Inflation Will Allow Policy Makers to Delay Start of  Tightening: 

Photo Copyright Imas Kurniawati-Finnegan 2009
The downturn in Indonesia's business cycle during the global recession has been far milder than seen in most other Asian economies. Indeed, its economy never experienced a contraction, while monetary easing continued until August 2009, whereas such policies had been completed by the Spring of 2009 elsewhere in the region. 
 
    This same pattern is being observed on the tightening side. With inflation still under control, economic growth now lagging relative to regional peers, and a currency that continues to appreciate, Indonesia's central bank will seek to delay tightening for as long as possible. Although most other countries in the region have by now initiated monetary tightening, Indonesia will wait until the first quarter of 2011 to do so.

New Policies Aimed at Deepening Financial Markets Will Also Support the Rupiah: 

    Indonesia is still perceived as one of the higher risk countries in Asia and its currency often falls prey to speculative attacks. Historically, such episodes of depreciation have been short-lived, but they are augmented by the country's underdeveloped financial markets and thin offshore rupiah trading. This summer, Bank Indonesia implemented a series of measures aimed at creating a secondary market for government bonds, and took additional measures to develop the country's financial markets. By creating a bigger market for rupiah-denominated assets, this should boost demand for the currency and help contain excessive exchange-rate volatility in the long term. For the time being, however, the rupiah remains at higher risk of sudden capital-outflow-induced depreciation than many other regional currencies.

Terrorist Threat Remains Present: 
 
    The killing of one of South-East Asia's most-wanted terrorist masterminds, Noordin Mohammed Top, by Indonesian counter-terrorism forces in September 2009, and the subsequent killings of two other Islamist militants in October have provided a major confidence boost for Indonesia's security outlook.

Key Macro-Economic Indicators:

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Real GDP (% change)
6.3 6.1 4.5 6.0 5.9 6.1 5.9 5.8 5.8

Nominal GDP (US$bil.)
432.0 510.5 540.3 699.7 786.7 872.7 957.8 1,051.4 1,154.4

Nominal GDP Per Capita (US$)
1,923 2,246 2,349 3,009 3,348 3,676 3,995 4,344 4,727

Consumer Price Index (% change)
6.3 10.1 6.4 5.1 5.8 5.2 5.5 5.4 5.4

Exchange Rate (LCU/US$, end of period)
9,419.00 10,950.00 9,400.00 9,051.07 9,183.56 9,322.64 9,481.27 9,619.76 9,751.80

Source: Historical data from selected national and international data sources. All forecasts provided by IHS Global Insight. Table updated on the 15th of each month from monthly forecast update bank (GIIF). Written analysis may include references to data made available after the release of the GIIF bank.

Challenges Set to Remain Entrenched in Indonesia's Political and Security Environment:

     Following President Yudhoyono's first cabinet's positive steps to address key issues, such as enhancing civilian control of the powerful military, reining in separatist forces, and containing terrorism, the new government continues to face a number of political and security challenges. One of these is pushing for further military reform in order to break up the armed forces' extensive commercial base. A plan to transfer all of the military businesses to the civilian-run Indonesian Military Management Body moved forward in October 2009, when a presidential decree was passed making this move legally possible. 
 
Photo Robert S. Finnegan 2001
The process is expected to be concluded by August 2010. Following the successful culmination of the Aceh peace process leading to local elections in December 2006, the security situation there has stabilized, but separatism remains a more significant problem in Papua. While terrorism remains a challenge for the Indonesian government, it has nevertheless achieved notable success in rounding up terror suspects in the aftermath of the 2002 Bali bomb attacks, and more recently after the 17 July 2009 bombings, with the security forces detaining key members of the main terrorist organization Jemaah Islamiyah (JI). The JI network has, however, recently been in the process of  consolidating itself, and smaller splinter groups of the organization remain a threat in the medium term.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Will Remain at the Heart of Indonesia's Foreign Policy:

     The political leadership is, however, increasingly trying to carve out a role for itself as an important international player beyond this.

Indonesia has long sought to take on an important role in the Islamic and developing world as an active member of the Organisation of Islamic Conference (OIC) and the Non-Aligned Movement. Following the institution of democracy in 2004, making it the largest Muslim democracy in the world, Indonesia has nurtured closer bonds with the United States, set to deepen considerably under the Obama administration. The United States has sought to establish "an arc of democracies" including Japan, Australia, and Indonesia to balance the influence of a fast-rising China. 

Executive Summary: Economic Outlook

    Steady growth will continue in 2011 and beyond. We estimate economic growth in Indonesia to have reached 6.0% in 2010 and anticipate a similar pace in 2011. Domestic demand, particularly investment, remains well supported by improved macroeconomic conditions and increased foreign investor interest in the country. Private consumption is also benefiting from rising incomes, relatively low inflation, and declining (although still high) unemployment. Government spending, which is estimated to have contracted in 2010, will likely accelerate modestly during 2011, although the boost will likely be limited and the magnitude of the gains constrained by lower corporate tax rates and still-low tax penetration.

    Monetary tightening delayed amid mild inflation. Given still-low headline inflation and delays in electricity-tariff increases, we have pushed back the timing of the first interest-rate hike until 2011. Comments from Bank Indonesia remain quite dovish for the time being, and as long as the rupiah does not succumb to renewed investor fears surrounding the Eurozone's sovereign problems, inflation should remain in check. Indonesia's business cycle has been much milder than elsewhere in the region, and much less "emergency" support had been injected into the system by the central bank during the crisis. This also means there is less immediacy for removing that emergency component in the early stages of the recovery. Nonetheless, a surge in food prices in recent weeks highlights risks, as evidenced elsewhere in the region.

    Reform efforts will pay off over medium term via higher foreign direct investment (FDI). Quietly and without fanfare, Indonesia has taken important steps to improve its business climate over the last few years. Given reduced corporate tax rates, less red tape, and an improved reputation as a favorable investment destination, Indonesia is well positioned to benefit from the increase in global direct investment flows associated with the global economic recovery in 2010 and beyond. We anticipate a steady increase in FDI inflows to Indonesia over the medium term, particularly in areas such as mining and hydrocarbons, infrastructure development, and manufacturing.

Executive Summary: Key Regulatory Issue to Watch

    President Launches Free-Trade Zone in Riau Islands: In January 2009, President Yudhoyono officially launched the long-anticipated free-trade zone for Batam, Bintan, and Karimun in the Riau Islands. Companies operating on the islands will no longer need to pay value-added tax (VAT), import duties, or luxury tax, in the hope that more foreign businesses will invest to take advantage of the comparatively low production costs. The government will impose harsh penalties on any local officials or businesses aiming to circumvent the regulations or hinder foreign investors in any way. However, under the new regulations, imports and exports can only be loaded and unloaded in five ports: Batu Ampar, Kabil, and Sekupang in Batam; Loban in Bintan; and Parit Rompak in Karimun. Patrol boats will be monitoring any activity that occurs outside these ports and will impose penalties where necessary. Investment in the Riau Islands totals around US$11 billion from over 1,000 foreign companies, with new investment totalling US$1 billion in 2008. Singapore is set to become a major investor, with the islands just 30 minutes by ferry from the Singapore mainland. Investors from the city state are keen to take advantage of the proximity of the islands, but were hesitant to proceed until legal matters were clarified. The main industries on the Riau Islands are garment production, electronics manufacturing, and shipbuilding.

Executive Summary: Legal Environment Overview

Photo Robert S. Finnegan 2003
Indonesia's regulatory and legal environment can be opaque, incoherent, and time-consuming. The current government has prioritised the modernisation of the legal system and has pledged to continue the major overhaul begun under President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's first cabinet (2004–09). It will, however, take some time before the ramifications of these enhancements are felt and the complex legal system is turned into a more efficient one. Entrenched corrupt business practices and deficiencies in law enforcement are also likely to be much harder to remedy than weaknesses in the legal system.


To be Continued:  Indonesia Intelligence Report, Part 2; Corruption Eradication Commission Expands Regional Ties


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TEPCO/Japanese govt. say Fukushima Radiation Release Falls to 100 Million Becquerels(?)/Hour


TEPCO with help from Bloomberg propaganda department rolls out yet ANOTHER radiation measurement to confuse international public; Japan, Obama governments continue to LIE about releases; what happened to "millisievert," rem measurements

Bloomburg
10/17/2011

The amount of radiation being released by the damaged reactors at Japan's crippled Fukushima nuclear plant has fallen to about 8 million times less than at the height of the disaster, Tokyo Electric Power Co. said.

    The three reactors are emitting about 100 million becquerels an hour, the company known as Tepco said in a monthly update on its so-called roadmap for resolving the worst civil nuclear crisis since Chernobyl in 1986.

Fukushima destroyed reactor continues to burn
The update was released today in Tokyo.

Tepco said it expects to stabilize its crippled Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear plant by the end of the year, maintaining the timetable announced by the government last month. The company has completed tsunami reinforcements at the plant, one of the goals of its roadmap, it said.

The units that went into meltdown after the March 11 earthquake and tsunami will be brought into a state known as cold shutdown by the end of the year, Goshi Hosono, the minister in charge of the government's response to the disaster, said on Sept. 20. Tepco earlier said the reactors would be stabilized by about the middle of January.

    A becquerel* represents one radioactive decay per second and involves the release of atomic energy, which can damage human cells and DNA. Prolonged exposure to radiation can cause leukemia and other forms of cancer, according to the World Nuclear Association.

    -Editors: Aaron Sheldrick, Baldave Singh

*  What a crock of shit... - Ed.


This site contains copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. We are making such material available in our efforts to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democracy, scientific, and social justice issues, etc.  We believe this constitutes a 'fair use' of any such copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes.




U.N. report: Iran secretly executing hundreds of prisoners


Obama, U.S. government, Wall St. can't survive fallout from economy rip-off without another war; UN slavishly builds yet ANOTHER ludicrous  case for war with Iran

Agence France-Presse
10/18/2011

UNITED NATIONS —

Iran’s authoritarian regime has been secretly executing hundreds of prisoners, according to a new UN report detailing growing rights abuses in the Islamic republic.

    The mysterious executions at Vakilabad prison in Mashhad in eastern Iran were highlighted in a report compiled by Ahmed Shaheed, the new UN special rapporteur on the human rights situation in Iran.

Yet another bogus UN report:  Does "Powell" ring a bell?
Shaheed, who assumed responsibility for the mandate on August 1, billed this as an interim report cataloging the most recent trends in the human rights situation in Iran.

The report details a raft of abuses from freedom of expression to the denial of women’s rights to the torture of detainees, but perhaps the most shocking data was on the skyrocketing rate of executions.

The report, obtained by AFP after first appearing on the Foreign Policy website, said 200 officially announced executions had taken place in 2011 with at least 83, including those of three political prisoners, in January alone.

    “Furthermore, authorities reportedly conducted more than 300 secret executions at Vakilabad prison in 2010,” the report said.

   “Vakilabad officials, in violation of Iranian law, allegedly carried out the executions without the knowledge or presence of the inmates’ lawyers or families and without prior notification to those executed,” it said.

    “It has also been reported that at least 146 secret executions have taken place to date in 2011.”

Iran Al Quds Forces:  No pushover, combat ready
Shaheed also noted that four percent of executions stipulated no charges, that 100 juveniles were on death row, and that more than 100 executions this year alone for drug-related offenses.

Human Rights Watch counted 388 executions in Iran in 2010, while Amnesty International put the figure at 252, ranking the Islamic republic second only to China in the number of people put to death last year.

    Tehran says the death penalty is essential to maintain law and order, and that it is applied only after exhaustive judicial proceedings.

   Murder, rape, armed robbery, drug trafficking and adultery are among the crimes punishable by death in Iran.


This site contains copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. We are making such material available in our efforts to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democracy, scientific, and social justice issues, etc.  We believe this constitutes a 'fair use' of any such copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes.

Goldman loses $428 million in third quarter


Suuuuure they did.  They said so, didn't they?

Reuters
10/18/2011

Goldman Sachs would never lie
Goldman Sachs Group Inc lost $428 million during the third quarter, only its second quarterly loss as a public company, hurt by sharp declines in the value of investment securities and customer trading assets.

The largest U.S. investment bank lost 84 cents per share, compared with earnings of $2.98 per share a year earlier.

   Analysts had been expecting, on average, a loss of 16 cents per share, according to Thomson. 

    Reuters I/B/E/S.

    Reporting by Lauren Tara LaCapra in New York; editing by John Wallace.

This site contains copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. We are making such material available in our efforts to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democracy, scientific, and social justice issues, etc.  We believe this constitutes a 'fair use' of any such copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes.


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ANDREW KREIG: EXPERTS REJECT FIRE AS CAUSE FOR 9/11 WTC COLLAPSES

The real truth on 9/11 slowly continues to bleed out

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Technical experts are mounting major challenges to official U.S. government accounts of how three World Trade Center skyscrapers collapsed in near-freefall after the 9/11 attacks 15 years ago.

Many researchers are focusing especially on the little-known collapse of

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The Geopolitics Of The United States, Part 1: The Inevitable Empire

The Empire and the inevitable fall of the Obama criminal regime

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STRATFOR Editor’s Note: This installment on the United States, presented in two parts, is the 16th in a series of STRATFOR monographs on the geopolitics of countries influential in world affairs.

Like nearly all of the peoples of North and South America, most Americans are not originally from the territory that became the United States.

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Geopolitics Of The United States Part 2: American Identity And The Threats of Tomorrow

A look back at 2011 predictions for the future in order to put events of today into perspective

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We have already discussed in the first part of this analysis how the American geography dooms whoever controls the territory to being a global power, but there are a number of other outcomes that shape what that power will be like. The first and most critical is the impact of that geography on the American mindset.

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By Robert S. Finnegan

This e-mail outlines and confirms the acts of espionage against Indonesia and Indonesians by Akiko Makino and the others involved both in Kobe University and in AI Lab at University of Airlangga, Surabaya; Bahasa Indonesia original follows English translation...

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UPDATED 01/07/2015 : New Analysis Challenges Tamiflu Efficacy; Hong Kong Corona Virus Outbreak

UPDATED 01/07/2015 : FOX NEWS CORPORATE PHARMA SHILL MEGAN KELLY AND FOX NEWS QUACK DOCTOR NOW PUSHING TAMIFLU FOR PREGNANT WOMEN AND CHILDREN;

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THE 5TH ESTATE UNEQUIVOCALLY WARNS THE PUBLIC NOT TO TAKE OR GIVE THIS PROVEN DANGEROUS, INEFFECTIVE DRUG TO ANYONE

Obama criminals now resulting to biowarfare in quest to destroy Chinese and ASEAN economy; "novel virus substrain" points directly to a Kawaoka / Fouchier / Ernala-Ginting Kobe lab virus weaponized and genetically altered to specifically target and infect the Asian population: Ribavirin...

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The 5th Estate has just purchased a library on H5N1 "Novel" virus pandemics, there are dozens of PDF and Exel documents we feel will assist you in saving lives following intentional releases of the H5N1 and now MERS viruses; we will begin by printing those that appear to be extremely relevant here: H5N1 Kobe-Kawaoka-Ernala series continues soon with more "Smoking Gun" e-mails from Teridah Ernala to The 5th Estate . . .

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By Robert S. Finnegan

On October 12, 2002 the Indonesian island of Bali experienced a terrorist attack that rocked the world. It was unquestionably well-coordinated and executed, the largest in the country's history.

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